FAQ – FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS

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MARKET RISK REPORT

Could your stock risk ratings reach a level that indicates an impending stock market crash?

Our stock market risk ratings indicate the potential risk of stock market investments as a percentage.

They do not indicate an impending stock market crash, but rather the probability of a possible market decline due to an “overbought” situation.

Consequently, a stock market risk score above the major threshold of 60% could indicate either a bubble territory with an immediate severe drop in market prices or a bear market/correction territory with a rather slowly down-grinding price decline.

Am I correct in assuming that you use weekly data for generating and back-testing your models?

Yes, we are exclusively using weekly data for generating and back-testing our models because it provides a perfect balance between avoiding too frequent updates and still being tuned to the current market developments. The idea is to remove the “noise” of the market (participants).

We are doing this mainly by filtering all trading signals with our market risk ratings. The purpose of this kind of filter is to reduce the number of false signals. But sometimes our models miss a significant part of the market action because of our risk rating filters.

We are aiming to find trading models that spot the start of a dominant, long-term trend, react quickly to market price changes, and provide us with a good signal-to-noise ratio. So our trading systems would only take a trade every year.

To generate and back-test validly a trading system, it is important to have large historical data set inputs. Consequently, most of the historical long-term market databases we are using for our back-tests are based on weekly time series. Some of them reach back to the 19th century.

We are providing a backtest example for our stock market risk-based strategy at https://risxx.com/stock-market-investment-model.

What is back-testing?
Back-testing is the simulation of historical data (past market prices, such as stock market index prices) in our trading systems and the calculation of the respective results.

The basic idea is to examine the hypothetical past performance, profitability, and efficiency of a strategy by using historical data. This evaluation and validation process is necessary to determine whether it is profitable to use the system or algorithm for real/life trading and to stress-test it with data from past market shocks (such as data from 1987 or 2008 for the stock market).

It is an important part of the trading system development process as it demonstrates how the strategy performs in different past market conditions.

Large historical data set inputs are required to generate and back-test a trading system covering various market conditions. The majority of the historical long-term market databases we are using are based on weekly time series. Some go back to the 19th century.

We are providing a backtest example for our stock market risk-based strategy at https://risxx.com/stock-market-investment-model.

Two major pitfalls by utilizing back-testing are in general the hindsight effect and the potential curve-fitting (i.e. over-optimisation) by reducing the generalization-ability of the trading system.

Do you run your models daily?

Yes, we calculate our models (44 covered markets) and especially our 77 risk ratings daily – after the US market closes. Six times a week (Monday – Friday, and Sunday). So that we can verify the performance on a daily basis and eventually send out mid-week alerts to our premium subscribers (for example on 02/28/2020 when our stock market risk score jumped above the 60%-threshold).

In your reports, you have graphs of the stock market saying “Global Stock Market Risk Lower Than 60 percent”. Does that mean the results of the graph are if you would have been invested any time the index was lower than 60%?

Yes. We are showing a graph regarding the simulated, hypothetical performance of stock market investments, whenever the global stock market risk rating has been below 60%.

A stock market risk score above the major threshold of 60% could indicate either a bubble territory with an immediate severe drop in market prices or a bear market/correction territory with a rather slow down-grinding price decline.

So, in general, our market risk scores only recommend an investment in the associated/underlying market when the current reading is below 60%.

It is also recommended to invest in a low-risk fund to minimize the market risk impact, whenever the risk rating exceeds a reading of 60%.

f there is a change in a strategy during the week will the subscribers receive a mid-week alert?

Yes, we will send out – for example on Tuesday, 02/28/2020 our stock market risk ratings jumped above 60% – a brief subscriber alert.

Why are there different time ranges regarding your performance reporting?

The reason for the different time ranges is that we launched the strategies and final models at different times:

1. The most recent and final generation of our stock market strategy – introducing the “overbought trigger” – was started on 11/18/2016.

2. The updated bond market strategy algorithms were launched on 12/31/2015.

3. We started the publication of our gold risk rating on 04/22/2018. We introduced this risk rating in our 2018/16 weekly report. Before this date, we only published our gold strategy signals.

Do you provide a list of all monitored markets?

The list at https://risxx.com/list-of-markets shows all the markets we are currently monitoring with our weekly RISXX Market Risk Report.

SUBSCRIPTION

How to manage my premium subscription?

We publish a detailed overview to help you manage your premium subscription and access your premium content at https://risxx.com/premium-subscription-management.

How to access my reports?

  1. In the menu bar, click on “ACCOUNT”.
  2. The login page will open.
  3. Enter your email and the password of your monthly/annual subscription.
  4. Click the button “Log In”.

RISXX risk solutions – Log into your subscriber portal by clicking on the account link

How to retrieve my password?

  1. In the menu bar, click on “ACCOUNT”.
  2. The login page will open.
  3. At the bottom of this page, click on the link “Forgot Password” (https://risxx.com/login?action=forgot_password).
  4. The “Request a password reset”-page will open.
  5. Enter your email address.
  6. Click on the button “Request Password Reset”.

Is your subscription set to auto-renew, or would I have to renew each year?

All subscriptions (i.e., monthly and annual) are generally set to auto-renew, but you can cancel/upgrade/downgrade your subscription any time within your subscriber dashboard.

RISXX risk solutions – Subscription management

If I would decide to cancel after 30 days, would I be locked in for a year?

Yes, but only if you are a subscriber to the annual plan.

PAYMENT

How to pay with credit cards?

You could find a detailed step-by-step guide to help you to process your payments with credit cards via Stripe at https://risxx.com/subscription-payment-credit-card-stripe.

How to pay via PayPal?

You could find a detailed step-by-step guide to help you to process your payments via PayPal at https://risxx.com/subscription-payment-paypal.

How to pay via bank transfers?

You could find a detailed step-by-step guide to help you to process your payments with bank transfers via QuickBooks at https://risxx.com/subscription-payment-bank-transfer-quickbooks.

How to update my credit card details?

You could find a detailed step-by-step guide to help you to update your credit card details at https://risxx.com/update-credit-card-details.

DISCLAIMER

GENERAL & LIABILITY

RISXX Inc. provides this website and its information for guidance and information purposes only. Therefore this website is not an offer to purchase or sell or solicit any offer to buy or sell any security or instrument. It is also not an offer to participate in any trading strategy. We compiled the information contained herein from sources deemed reliable. Consequently, it is accurate to the best of our knowledge and belief. However, RISXX Inc. cannot assure its accuracy, completeness, and validity.
Furthermore, RISXX Inc. cannot be held liable for any errors or omissions. All information contained herein should be independently verified and confirmed. Above all, we do not accept any liability for any loss or damage howsoever caused in reliance upon such information. Reader agrees to indemnify and hold harmless RISXX Inc. from and against any damages, costs, and expenses. This includes any fees potentially resulting from the application of any of the information provided by RISXX Inc.

PERFORMANCE

The analysis, ratings, and recommendations made by RISXX Inc. do not provide, imply, or otherwise constitute performance assurance. In other words, past actual or simulated performance is no guarantee of future results. The user shall not assume that future results will be positive or equal past performance, real, indicated, or implied. RISXX Inc. offers no assurance regarding the accuracy, market predictive powers, suitability, or effectiveness (either expressed or implied) of any of the information provided.

RISKS

Any market exposure always entails the possibility of substantial loss of equity. The website user agrees to assume all risks resulting from applying any of the information provided by us. Additionally, to usual risks embedded with investing, international trading may involve the risk of capital loss. For instance, fluctuations in currency values, differences in accounting principles, or economic or political instability in foreign countries could cause the risk of capital loss.

COPYRIGHTS

Any commercial realization of the information provided by this website without written permission from RISXX Inc. is strictly forbidden. Trademarks and copyrights mentioned on this website are the ownership of their respective companies. The names of products and services presented are used only in an educational fashion and to the benefit of the trademark and copyright owner, with no intention of infringing on trademarks or copyrights.